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PROGNOZI ZILZILA

PROGNOZI ZILZILA, mafhumi seysmologist, ki joyu vaqt va quvvai zaminjunbihoi sakhtro muayyan mekunad. Prognozi zilzila zimni mushohidai tagyiroti parametru hodisoti gunoguni atrofi Zamin (ham dar qar va ham dar atmosferai on) ba amal barovarda meshavad. Anomaliyai nazarras, ki az qimathoi mutavassiti pesh aa zuhuri zilzilahoi sakht badastomada farq mekunad, nishonahoi zilzila nomida meshavad. In nishonaho dar marhilahoi gunoguni tadoruk paydo megardand. Vobasta ba in se navi asosii Prognozi zilzila mavjud ast: darozmuddat, miyonamuddat va kutohmuddat.

p-zaminjunbi

Prognozi zilzilai darozmuddat dar kharitahoi imruzai nohiyabandii zilzila ovarda shuda ast, ki onho aksaran dar mavzehoi gunogun ba amal omadani zilzilahoi 7, 8 va 9-ballaro nishon medihand (nig. Zilzila). In malumot az rui takroryobii zilzilahoi miyonaballa muayyan karda meshavand. Dar baze mintaqaho ba sifati nishonai darozmuddati Prognozi zilzila ba nom mafhumi «oromishi seysmiki»-ro niz istifoda mebarand. Qati nazar az on, ki dar guzashta zilzilahoi sakht ba vuqu omadaand, dar in mintaqaho ba muddati ziyod khomushii zilzila mushohida mesha­vad. Energiyai zilzilai sakhti oyanda va vaqti ba vuqu payvastani on zimnn davomoti «oromishi seysmiki», saviyai energetikii zilzila va muhiti farogirii on taqriban baho doda meshavad. Az rui tagyiryobinoi tulonii surati deformatsiyai sathi Zamin, ki dar naqbhoi makhsusi sokhtashuda bo yorii tamoilsanju deformografho chen kar­da meshavand, tagyir yoftani reji­mi seysmiki, davri khuruj kardani hodisoti seysmiki va baze digar alomatho prognozi darozmuddatro tartib medihand. Prognozi zilzilai darozmuddat imkoniyati az yak to chand sol va Prognozi zilzilai miyonamuddat az yak moh to yak sol ba vuqu omadani zilzilai sakhtro muayyan mekunad.

Prognozi zilzilai miyonamuddat dar asosi chen kardani mekhanizmi manbahoi susti zilzila va quvvati miyonai zilzilai mavzehoi tadqiqshavanda, anomaliyahoi surathoi pahnoishi mavjhoi seysmiki dar qari zamin, tagyir yoftani muqovimati jinshoi kuhi hangomi az onho guzashtani jarayoni balandquvva, omilhoi geokhimiyavii muhit, az jumla obhoi garmi chohho (radon, geliy, karbon va digar elementho), fishor va qarorati obi garmchashmaho va gayraho tartib doda meshavand. Odatan hama guna tagyirot dar vohidi vaqt shakli mavji megirand, yane buzurgii parametrho bo ohistagi nisheb (yo khud faroz), soni boz faroz (yo khud nisheb) meravand va dar marhilai ba saviyai normal rasidan zaminjunbii sakhti peshbinishuda ba vuqu meoyad. Parametrhoe, ki chen kardani onho zarur ast, dar qari Zamin nomuntazam pahn shudaand, az in ru muayyan kar­dani mavzei asl, quvva va vaqti vuqui zilzila dushvortar megardad.

Nishonahon kutohmuddati zaminjunbi to chand ruz, yo khud to chand soati ba vuqu payvastani zilzila zohir meshavad. Dar masohati yak andoza kalon (bazan dar radiusi to 1000 km) vobasta az quvvati zaminjunbii oyanda ba kulli tagyir yoftani tamoyul va deformatsiyai sathi Zamin, vektori maydoni magnitii Zamin, mizoni jarayoni obi chohho va havzahoi tabiiro mushohida mekunand. Dar baze holatho afkanishoti radiomavji akustikiro qayd kardaand, lappish va partavi ionosfera va afruzishhoi ravshaniro mushohida namudaand. Odamon hanuz az davrahoi ka­dim mushohida kardaand, ki dar nazdikihoi markazi zaminjunbihoi sakht chand soat pesh az vuqui ofati tabii hayvonho, murgu khazandaho besaranjom meshavand.

Ba tufayli inkishofi ilmhoi seysmologi miqdori nishonahoe, ki peshomadi zaminjunbiro muayyan mekunand, to raft ziyod shuda istodaast. Takhmine meravad, ki zilzilahoi falokatbor hama guna nitashonahoi zamikjunbihoi darozmuddat, miyonamuddat va kutoqmuddatro dorand. Zilzilahoi iqtidorashon miyona tanho nishonahoi zaminjunbihoi miyonamuddat va kutohmuddatro doshta metavonandu bas.

Azbaski farqiyati tamoyuli pa­rametri nishonahoi zilzilahoi miyonamuddat va kutohmuddat dar jarayoni vaqt gunogunand, binobar in boetimodii har kadomi onho dar alohidagi chandon baland nestand. Az in ru, holathoi bargalati nishonahoi zaminjunbi niz mushohida shudaand. Bo in maqsad dar tartib dodani Prognozi zilzila ba tavri kompleksi istifoda burdani hama guna nishonahoi zaminjunbi hatmist.

Dar vaqti hozira metodhoi tartib dodani Prognozi zilzila chandon boetimod nestand. Dar respublikahoi Osiyoi Miyona va Qazoqiston, inchunin dar yak qator nohiyahoi zilzilakhezi SSSR bo maqsadi baland bardoshtani boetimodii Prognozi zilzila markazhoi regionali tasis yoftaand. Rohbariyati markazii Prognozi zilzilai osiyoimiyonagi ba uhdai Instituti seysmolo­giya va sokhtmoni zilzilabardori AF RSS Tojikiston ast. Dar respublika doir ba ziyod kardani punkthoi seysmo­logi, guzaronidani mushohidahoi tamoyuli, magniti, geokhimiyavi, in­chunin doir ba avtomatonidani korkardi natijahoi mushohida choraho andeshida istodaand.

Ad.:       Poiska predvestnikov zemle­ tryaseniy na prognosticheskikh poligonakh,

M., 1974; Babaev A. M., K o sh l a k o v G. V., Mireoev K. M., Seysmicheskoe rayonirovanie Tadjikistana, D.. 1978; Sbornik sovetsko-amerikaskikh rabot po prognozu zemletryaseniy, t. I. kn. 1—2, D. M., 1976—79.            K. Mirzoev.

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