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EHTIMOLIYaT

ehtimol

EHTIMOLIYaT dar matematika, tavsifi adadii darajai imkonpazirii ruy dodani yagon hodisai muayyanro dar yagon sharoiti dodashuda guyand, ki beokhir takror shudanash mumkin ast.

Qimati adadii E. dar baze mavridho az tarifi «klassikii» E. muayyan karda meshavad: E. barobar ast ba nisbati shumorai mavridhoi «qulay» bar shumorai tamomi mavridhoi «barobarimkon». Mas., giriftem, az 10 haz. seriyai bilethoi lotereya hazortoyash burdnok boshand. E.-i burdnokii yak bileti lotereyai kharidashuda ba 1000/10000 = 1/10 = 0,1 barobar meboshad.

Dar digar mavridhoi nisbatan murakkab E.-ro bo tarzi statisti muayyan mekunand. Mas., az 100 dona tukhmii kishta 59-toyash sabzid. Metanol guft, ki ehtimoliyati sabzidani yak dona tukhmi ba 59/100 = =0,59 ~ 0,6 barobar ast. Az rui E.-hoi ba tarzi klassiki yo statisti muayyanshuda muvofiqi qoidahoi nazariyai ehtimoliyat E.-hoi nav hisob karda meshavand. Mas., agar E.-i sabzidani dar yak dona 0,6 boshad, ehtimoliyati az 4 dona tukhmii kishta sabzidani kamash yak donai on chunin ast: 1— —0,44 = 1—0,0256=0,9744. In E.-ro dar asosi sanjishhoi statisti niz hisob kardan mumkin. Umuman basomadi ruy dodani hodisa m/p (p — shumorai sanjishho, m — shumorai ruy dodani hodisa dar in sanjishho) az ehtimoliyati ruy dodani hodisa — r kam farq mekunad. Shumorai sanjishho har qadar ziyod shavad, in farq toraft ba sifr teztar mayl mekunad. Mas., ehtimoliyati aftidani tarafi gerbdori (yo raqamdori) tanga ba 1/2 barobar ast. Ehtimoliyati dar 10 sanjish (tangapartoi) dah marotiba pasi ham barobar omadani ruyai gerbdor (yo raqamdor)-i tanga nihoyat kam ast. Zero tasdiqoti «panj marotiba muvofiq omadani ruyai gerbdor» ham kamehtimol meboshad; ruyai gerbdor 4,5 va 6 6 marotiba muvofiq omad guem ham khato mekunem. Ammo dar 100 sanjish be hej shubha tasdiq, kardan mumkin ast, ki tarafi gerbdori on 40—60 marotiba muvofiq meoyad. Mafhumi E. kharakteri ommavi dorad ba dar bahodihii qimati adadii hodisaho va metodhoi gunoguni statistikai matematiki istifoda burda meshavad.

V. X. Toshboev.

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